Model-based Decision-Making

How to support long-term decision-making on complex societal issues using cutting-edge modelling techniques in combination with state-of-the-art deliberative methods? Complex societal challengers are typically surrounded by deep uncertainty, and the various policymakers involved virtually always operate in a highly political environment. Analysts involved in model-based decision support need to be aware of this political context and need to be sensitive to the multi-actor aspects of decision making. Hence, model-based analyses need to be combined with other types of methodological approaches.

This course aims to build a bridge between the modelling approaches as taught in the modelling line and the theories on decision making as taught in the policy analysis line. The course will, on the one hand, build on the recent work on model-based decision support for decision making under deep uncertainty. On the other hand, this course will cover recent work on contested knowledge claims, co-production of science-based policy, and deliberative policy analysis. The methods and techniques will be model-based, but and this makes this course unique – complemented with other types of methods aimed at generating support and creating legitimacy for model-based analyses.

The course will be a mix of workshops on key conceptual and theoretical issues and group work of a more applied nature. Students will work in groups on a large societal issue, use models to support the design of an adaptive policy and think about how to take account of the political environment in their designs to contribute to alleviating the problem.